Folks like those at Gartner fail to take into account the "Black Swan" events that permeate finance and technology. They make predictions based on current trends, but in tech we see blockbuster products drop from the sky and change the game radically. Like the iPhone. If you asked Gartner for predictions before the iPhone I'm sure it would have been radically different. The current trends Gartner sees could become irrelevant in 6 months and they want to make predictions out to 2014?! They're going to be about as accurate as the 10-day weather forecast.
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